Zheng cotton upcoming market is about to start

Zheng cotton has completed the bottoming process, the main 1301 contract entered the key point of contention, if you can break through the previous high of 19,685 yuan, rising prices will start.

At present, the main cotton-producing regions of extreme weather in the northern hemisphere triggered concerns about cuts, while cotton purchasing and storage asymptotic Chinese new year, in more than Liduo Ti vibration, Zheng cotton oscillation bottoming process has been completed, the main 1301 contract reached a critical If the point contention can be overcome by the previous high of 19,685 yuan, Zheng cotton's rising market will start with a target price of 20,000 yuan.

Cotton and yarn prices

Extreme weather in cotton-producing areas caused fear of reduced production

Since late August, extreme weather has occurred in the main cotton producing areas in the northern hemisphere. The market is concerned that the cotton production in the new year will be affected. The United States has continued to experience drought this year. More than 50% of the land has suffered from drought. In recent days, some cotton fields have ushered in rainfall, but they are not enough to ease the drought. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report on the crop condition, as of August 19, the good and excellent rate of cotton seedlings in the United States of Texas was only 22%, the average proportion of the seedlings was 32%, and the poor proportion was 46%. Love tends to deteriorate. India's rainfall this year has been reduced by 20% compared to previous years. It is expected that this year's cotton production will be reduced. India will decide whether to limit exports according to domestic production. The recent rainy weather in China has a greater impact on the cotton area of ​​the Huang-Huai River Basin. Some of the cotton in Shandong and Hebei have been mildewed. The cotton fields in the low-lying areas have been flooded, and the cotton fields in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin have been less affected.

Increased storage and price increase

The upheaval of throwing storage and adding rumors has exacerbated the frequency of cotton price volatility. With the approaching of storage and storage time, the pressure of throwing rumors on the market has eased, and the price recovery policy has gradually increased. From a time point of view, the new year's recovery and storage will start at the earliest on September 6. The country will have a low probability of throwing reserves at the beginning of storage and storage. Even if it is to be thrown, the number will be limited, and the additional quota will increase. External cotton supply is not favorable for storage and storage, and it is unlikely to be implemented in the short term. According to relevant investigations, the domestic cotton storage capacity is more than 10 million tons, and the current cotton reserve is 4.5 million tons. Even if the cotton collection and storage in the new year is carried out with an open and unlimited policy, the total cotton storage capacity can fully meet the demand. In the later period, it will enter the storage and storage period, and the role of purchasing and storage will increase gradually.

Spot market is showing signs of activity

The current cotton spot price is basically stable, and the downstream cotton yarn market has an intention to raise prices. According to customs news, in July 2012, China’s textile and apparel exports were 23.89 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month increase of 4.3%, and it has been increasing for the third consecutive month, indicating that exports are slowly recovering. At the same time, the inquiry into the downstream yarn market has increased, and some manufacturers have already raised their price intentions. Although the actual price increase scope is narrow, the overall market is still light, but there are signs of recovery. In September, the textile market will enter the traditional peak season, and the downstream will increase the procurement of raw materials, which will give a certain support to the cotton price.

Technically speaking, Zheng cotton 1301 contract shock bottoming has lasted for two months, recently successfully broke through the average repression, to stabilize the early pressure of 19,500 yuan, is currently sprinting to the key point of 19,680 yuan, despite the lack of effective cooperation with the amount of energy However, the rising pattern of Zheng cotton has been basically established. If it can successfully break through the repression of previous highs in the later period, the mid-term rise will soon start.

Rising market is about to start

The price of cotton has entered the transitional period between old and new. The short-term policy of buying and storing will be the focus of the market. If extreme weather in the northern hemisphere continues, it will change the pattern of cotton supply in the new year. Zheng Mian has completed the process of shaking and bottoming under Lido's resonance, and the rising market is about to start.