Commodities ** mixed and the cotton continued to fall

Domestic commodities ** rose on April 28 and cotton, rubber and copper were weaker. Industry insiders pointed out that further tightening policy is expected to limit the increase of commodities and it is expected to maintain the adjustment trend in the short term.

The Fed announced on April 27 that the Federal Reserve interest rate will continue to be at a record low of 0.25%, and said that the second round of quantitative easing measures (QE2) ended by the end of June. This Fed’s resolution will be beneficial to the trend of international commodities in the short term.

Just after the Fed announced that it would continue to implement the US$600 billion quantitative easing policy in the next two months, the US crude oil boom has expanded, while the recently active gold has once again set a record high. This year's June and July will be a turning point for commodities such as gold. The market is generally concerned whether the Fed will introduce a new round of quantitative easing after the second round of quantitative easing expires in June. This will To a certain extent, it will affect the future trend of international commodities.

Cotton continues to fall. In recent weeks, the contract volume of US cotton exports has been negative continuously. China has cancelled a large number of orders, which may cause US cotton exports to fall short of the target. At the same time, the Australian cotton and Brazilian cotton harvested in 2011, the new cotton will be listed on a large number of shipments and exports, and the current price is very low, the US cotton exports and international cotton prices are not small pressure. Although the weather factors are expected to provide support to the market, I am afraid it is difficult to resist the loose supply of cotton and the impact of the apparent frustration of Chinese demand on the market.

As China, the world’s largest cotton producer, supply and demand in 2011 also improved. The industry said that if there is no accident, the global cotton supply and demand contradiction in 2011 will be significantly eased, and the ending stocks are expected to return to more than 10 million tons again. In view of the large proportion of industrial and commercial inventories this year, cotton consumption is constrained by many factors, and the supply and demand of China's cotton market may be tight and balanced.

Rubber prices have not been able to maintain a rebound. Some data show that the supply and demand situation is no longer optimistic. Production forecasts released by India, Malaysia, and Indonesia all show that production is likely to rise significantly, and the auto market is slowing after two consecutive years of growth. Further tightening policies will affect China's auto market and curb consumption growth in this world's largest consumer country.

Copper continued to adjust its trend. Since April’s full season of copper consumption, the operating rate of copper rod wire, wire and cable, copper foil and copper foil and copper tube production enterprises increased to 79.7%, 79.5%, 58.2% and 82.4%, respectively. In April, the proportion of copper in raw material stockpiles of copper rod companies and wire and cable companies fell to 15.30% and 17.20%, respectively. These copper consumer companies mainly consumed early-stage inventory.

The domestic smelter's operating rate was as high as 91.94% in March, and the output of electric copper was 470,000 tons. In addition, there are more than 600,000 tons of electric copper in warehouses in bonded areas, and the raw materials available to processing companies are abundant. The high oscillation of copper prices has increased the sensitivity of downstream consumer companies to prices, and is not of great interest. It is understood that the stocks of raw materials of Chinese copper consumers have dropped from the previous 2-3 weeks to 2-3 days, mainly to consume the stocks that were added at the previous low levels. In the recent oscillating pattern of copper (70700,150.00,0.21%) price, the acceptable price of copper consumer enterprises should be under 70,000 yuan/ton, and the price of copper may still face downward adjustment in the later period.

On the whole, the tightening of global liquidity is pressing harder and harder. Since 2010, China has raised the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions 10 times and raised interest rates several times. India, South Korea and other economies have also issued tightening policies, and the European Central Bank has also adopted this Earlier this month announced a rate hike. At present, the end of QE2 from the United States has only 2 months left. Although the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates, any move beyond the "sustainable zero interest rate" expectation will weigh on commodity composition.