Myanmar Public Watch: This year's increase is only 10%!

On March 18, 2012, the first wave of Burmese emerald masterpieces came to a close. Compared with the “poor event” that took place between 12,000 and 10,000 people, the number of people arriving in Myanmar this year dropped to 2,000. In the past two years, Xu Hongfei, a famous sculptor of the jadeite stone auction at the public auction in Burma, has seen a handful of flashlights in one hand and a bottle of water in one hand. Experts of utilization and profitability, but obviously felt that the coal miners and real estate developers who had been insanely flooding into Myanmar in the previous two years had basically disappeared.

The evacuation of hot money has made this year's Myanmar public sector a lot less. Because of the small number of people, Myanmar's original stone merchants have picked up goods and lost less than 100 million yuan of rough stones. However, the rough trade in the upper and middle grades is still relatively active, but the transaction price is not as "radical" as in previous years. In the early years, when the price of jade went all the way, every stone transaction price on the public plate would have a 20%-30% increase compared with the same stone on the last time. However, this year, the price increase was less than 10%.

Since about 90% of Myanmar's jade is sold to China, the transaction status of Myanmar's public trading market is often seen as a benchmark for the Jade market. Are all the performances of the first wave of the public in 2012 predicting the good days when jade will only rise? Ever since the emerald market, with its ever-increasing volume, has been consolidating?

A

Why does hot money leave the Myanmar board?

Zhao Liping: Since 2000, the price of jade has been rising all the way. In the last two years, it has turned several times in a year. In the end, it has been called a crazy stone. When I went to Myanmar in late 2010, the trading venue had just moved from the old capital Yangon to the new capital Nay Pyi Taw. The local reception capacity was only 2,000. I did not expect to have nearly 10,000 people at once. There are too many people, they have no place to live, and they can't eat well. However, the highest peak was in June last year and it immediately went to 20,000 people. Guangdong's four jade jade market --- Guangzhou Hualin Street, Sihui, Foshan Pingzhou, Jieyang Yangmei, all went to grab stones there. However, by the end of last year, due to the influence of the economic environment, the Jade boom has begun to cool. The 2012 first year of Burma's original jade stone on March 18 was significantly less popular than before, and the number of people returned to 2,000. .

佘 佘 佘 常 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :. Many coal owners and other investors in Shanxi Province saw the downturn in the stock market and the suppression of the property market, so they took the money for investment. Therefore, in previous Myanmar’s public trading, many laymen could be seen squeezing there. They did not know what they were doing, and they had higher prices than they spelled out. As a result, everyone raised prices. As a result, true connoisseurs could not buy goods, but billions of dollars were the original stone. Frequently appear.

Zhao Liping: This is indeed the case. There have been many investors who used to go to Myanmar's public trading market. This year, they are basically experts. When I went to the plate with my connoisseurs, because the area was too hot, they were all wearing straw hats, holding flashlights in one hand and holding a bottle of water in one hand. The characteristics were very obvious. When they look at the stone, they will flash it with a flashlight, wipe it with water, see how much penetration there is, and the color of the cut face is not much, and they are mentally contemplating how many bracelets or ornaments can be made, how much they can sell, and the exact computer at the scene. Calculate how much this stone is worth. Last year, many experts found that such precisely calculated prices simply could not be bought. Many laymen poured in. Although they couldn't read the stone, but some of it was money. Experts believed that no more than 10 million yuan worth of stones was actually bought by someone who spent two or three million yuan. And after these people bought back the stone, they did not take it and processed it. They squatted and used it purely for roasted seeds and nuts.

Hou Yu-yu: In the past few years, I have spoken my heart and I have suffered. Our great energy is spent on the supply, because the connoisseur must have a profit and must be accounted for, but the outsiders do not speak the rules. If they are so careful, they cannot buy the stone.

佘 佘 佘 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 这 这 这 这 这 这 这 这 这 这 这 这 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 Although China is the largest consumer of jade, China's emerald raw materials are all imported. Compared with Thailand, India, the Philippines, and other countries in the preferential taxation policy for imported jadeite raw materials, China's import tax for jadeite raw materials is as high as 33.9% (including 3% customs duty, 17% VAT, 10% consumption tax and 3.9% income tax). Therefore, before a lot of wool went into China, they were taking unusual channels. If you ask any company, they will not tell you how much sales are. Therefore, the inspection of China Customs increased its efforts and immediately seized emerald wool worth several billion yuan. Some of these people who ran out of materials had borrowed money to buy materials. Once the goods were detained, they immediately went bankrupt. When the irregular channel of jadeite imports was blocked, many people did not dare to purchase goods, and the number of people who went to the public plate would soon be reduced. Therefore, for the first time in the second half of last year, the number of merchants in Myanmar exceeded the number of Chinese businessmen.

Zhao Liping: Jade's transportation is very risky. Because Myanmar stipulates that the emerald that won on the public plate cannot be transported back to China, it must entrust local companies to transport it. A friend of mine, I paid the tax money, but the transportation company did not take the customs passage in order to earn the difference. As a result, the inspection of the goods was detained. My friend came to the door and did not expect the transportation company to run away, and lost his wife and soldiers. There is no way at all.

Zhai Dingchang: So for these scarce resources in China, we have been calling for a reasonable reduction of the comprehensive tax rate for import and export links, and even tax exemptions. Like diamonds, we also rely on imports. In the past, the comprehensive tax rate was as high as 17%. 99% of diamonds on the Chinese market were smuggled in. Since 2002, China has exempted diamond roughs and unmounted diamonds from import tariffs. In 2006, the actual tax burden on imports of diamonds exceeding 4% was refunded by the Customs and the majority of diamonds were removed. Regular channels were imported. However, I think that for the diamonds, the comprehensive tax rate of 4% is still high, and if it can be reduced to 2%, it would be better. After all, the value of jewellery is high, and the actual tax payment is not small.

B

How will the price of jadeite go this year?

Zhao Liping: I listened to connoisseurs who came back to Myanmar this year. Due to the low number of people going to this session, the original stone merchants in Myanmar are not willing to take good things out. In previous years, the transaction price of the original stone was higher by 20%-30% than the previous time. However, this year, the rate of increase was less than 10%, so there was no stone of over RMB 100 million in this year's session. Especially since the end of last year, there have always been good days in the community for sounds of advocacy for jade. How do these factors affect the trend of jadeite prices this year?

Hou Yuyu: There are fewer people to go, competition is not so intense, prices will not be lifted too far, but in fact the quantity of goods coming into the Chinese jade market should not be much different, because the go-go experts have gone, but only There is less hot money for speculation. The raw material of the hot money is not invested in the jade market processing and sales, they are waiting for the opportunity to sell the whole block. I have been in contact with many collectors. There are many good goods in my hands, but I am not in a hurry to come up with them. I am still waiting for the price of jadeite to rise again.

佘 佘 佘 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : This kind of resourcefulness is very limited. As people's income increases, demand will increase and prices will naturally rise. In the last ten years, the price of jadeite has soared. Although it has slightly converged at the end of last year, the overall trend is still upward. I think that the price of jadeite is still a trend, but it will not necessarily be so crazy. It is time to enter the rational stage.

Zhao Liping: According to my observation, since the end of last year, the price of jadeite products has remained very strong, and the price will fall in the middle and low grade jadeite. It is very difficult for the price of good things to fall, but this year, it is estimated that the price will rise.

佘 佘 佘 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : :. There is not much room for appreciation of the low-grade jadeite, and the gap between supply and demand is not large. Therefore, if the market adjustments are encountered, it will certainly only affect them.

Zhao Liping: In this Myanmar public trading session, the final transaction was mainly based on the raw materials in the upper and middle grades. The low-priced goods and expensive goods were not sold at the price, but the total transaction was fairly active. It seems that Xu Hongfei voted for 18 goals and only 3 of them were final. Many other Cantonese jade experts have bought raw materials of several million to 12 million yuan. It was different from what I saw at the end of 2010. Every single tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of dollars was taken. I took a picture of a good stone that was only three or four kilograms and took a photo of it. The original piece of rock shot nearly RMB 200 million.

C

Will the intervention of Western brands influence the jadeite market in China?

Zhao Liping: The jadeite market has always been in the east, but since the first two years, some western luxury brands and some well-known designers have also begun to use jade in some jewellery. The intervention of western brands will have an impact on the jade market in China. ?

Hou Yuyu: Since ancient times, Westerners prefer red sapphires and diamonds, while Asians prefer jade. After the cultural exchanges between China and the West, first of all, diamonds became popular in China. Then color gems began to appear among young people in China. With the spread of oriental culture, Jadeite has gradually been favored by some Westerners. This is normal. But in the big format, there will not be much change, after all, the mainstream things will not change.

Yu Dingchang: Guangdong's jade market is not only the first in the country, but also the first in Southeast Asia and the first in the world. The four major jade processing centers and trade centers—Guangzhou Hualin Jade Street, Sihui Jade Market, South China Sea Pingzhou Jade Street, and Jieyang Yangmei Jade, account for at least two-thirds of the national jewellery market. With such a large market in China, the addition of Western elements will not have much impact.

D

Do not choose to follow suit Zhao Liping: There are many types and colors of jade. From the point of view of collection, how should you choose jade?

Hou Yuyu: In general terms, the high-end boutique jadeite is only suitable for long-term investment and collection, and it can withstand the test of history. Collecting artwork is actually collecting culture. The most important thing is not to follow the trend and not to buy it. In 2000, when diamonds just emerged, you went to the mall's jewellery counters and saw a piece of white flowers, all diamonds and platinum. At that time, Chow Tai Fook sold platinum instead of selling it on grams, but sold it in pieces. To calculate it, one gram must be 800-1000 yuan. After the jade wave came, the jewellery counter became a green again. Now playing green is tired, and some people have begun to play purple emerald. A purple jade bracelet may be 1-2 million years ago, and now it will cost at least 2-3 million yuan. In two years, maybe everyone is tired of purple, and then it is estimated that the purple jade should have dropped.

佘 佘 : : : : : : : : : 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以 所以. It seems that Hetian Yu, which bears the cultural inheritance from ancient times to the present millennium, is very strange in China's cultural history. There is no other thing that can be inherited as a culture from a single material.

Hou Yuyu: In general, collectibles must have the following attributes: First, scarcity of resources, materials are rare; Second, maintenance costs are not high, like jade, basically no need to maintain later; Third, the recognition of traditional values, such as Opal, though very beautiful, is one of the top five gems in the world. However, it contains water, it will dehydrate after a long time, its luster will be dull, and its material structure is not stable. Therefore, it is less inclined to use it as a collection.

However, the selection of collectibles also requires testing of the individual's vision and comprehension. The influence of geographical factors is also great. For example, all of them are jade, and Yunnan people are eager for glass species. Hong Kong, Macao, and southern people like the colors of Yang Qiao and elegant colors, while Taiwanese love the dark and rich colors and think that “color strength” is enough. Therefore, Yunnan people are willing to spend a few million dollars and a few million yuan to buy a glass bracelet. Many people from Hong Kong and Macao who have made jade articles find this unbelievable. Different places have different cultural identity and aesthetics. If consumers don’t know what they’re doing, when they buy jade, they rely on the reputation of the business. Second, they rely on their own experience, and the third is to find experts to help their eyes.

Know more D

After the Burmese government's Myanmar government nationalized all mineral resources in the early 1960s, it blocked the loss of tax revenues and made scarce jadeite resources create more revenue for the country. It began in March 1964. Holds a jade plate of jade and wool.

Myanmar’s “Jewelry Law” stipulates that all jadeite wool mined from the mining area (in 1995, additional gemstones, pearls, and other jewelry wool) must be fully concentrated in Yangon for classification, classification, numbering, and base price. Every year, regularly or irregularly, inviting jewelers from all over the world to Yangon (moving to the new capital of Myanmar in Nay Pyi Taw at the end of 2010), they will be valuing and buying these wool materials.

The so-called “public trading” means that the seller publicizes the articles to be traded on the market, allowing the industry or the market to evaluate the minimum transaction price recognized by the market according to the quality of the goods, and then the buyer bids on the basis of the price. The highest bidder is. In a sense, it is only the embryonic form of auction transactions.

The bidding mode of the public board is divided into two ways: "dark" and "clear". In the “dark label”, the bidder fills in the bid number issued by the organizing committee, the name of the bidder, the bidding item number, and the bidding price on the bidding list and enters the bid box with the bidding item number. They do not know the bids and bidding prices of their respective bids, so they are called dark marks. Dark labels are mostly medium and low materials, and they have base prices. At the time of opening the bid, the winning bidder and the bidding price were announced publicly according to the bidding item number. Each time the official jadeite wool material, dark standard objects account for more than 4/5. The "Bright" is the live auction. The bidders are all concentrated in the trading floor. Whenever a public staff member publishes a bidding item number, the bidder will take turns bidding on the spot. Whoever produces the highest bidding price will win the bid. Each time the official jadeite wool material, the standard object is less than 1/5. However, Mingbiao is a high-end, high-priced, and the base price is more than 1,000 yuan. The bidding is fierce. It is usually several times or even ten times higher than the reserve price.

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