2011 cotton "bear" is a long way, relying on storage

In 2011, it was a year of differentiation in the trend of commodities. It was also a year in which the leading factors such as cost support and economic downturn competed with each other. This year, the global bulk of goods presented a dramatic trend.

In 2008, the commodity market experienced financial turmoil and was completely black and blue.

In 2009, with the national wind of investment policy of RMB 4 trillion, commodities regained collectively from the low level.

In 2010, the commodity bull market reached its peak, and the general increase in the prices of agricultural products gave birth to a new round of inflation.

In 2011, this was a year of differentiation in the trend of commodities, and it was also a year in which the leading factors such as cost support and economic downturn competed with each other. This year, the global bulk of commodities presented a dramatic trend: full confidence in the first half of the year and rising steadily; in the second half, they all swooped and oscillated.

In 2011, domestic cotton spot prices and ** prices entered a long-term bearish path after hitting a high in the first quarter and hitting a record high of 19,800 yuan/tonne in the middle or late October. stage.

From January to mid-February, the short supply was the main keynote. In addition, the Spring Festival price was expected to reach a record high again in February 2011. The main contract of the 1109 contract reached a record high of 34,870 yuan per ton. After the period price hit a new high, the suppression effect of the Khmer price on demand began to show. Zheng cotton began to oscillate and fell after peaking in February.

In order to protect the original intention of the industry chain, the government began to intervene in the market in April and introduced a new year’s purchase and storage policy. However, the stipulated price of 19,800 yuan/ton was at market value of 28,000 yuan/ton, which was interpreted as negative by the market. , increasing the pressure of falling prices. The falling price of the period lasted until September, and the period price also fell to around 20,000 yuan/ton, which was above the reserve price and close to the reserve price. Although the fundamentals of cotton were still weak afterwards, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to operate within a narrow range of shocks under the support of storage and storage prices.