September 20, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures opened higher, one stroke crossed 20,000 yuan per ton mark, then sealed in the daily limit. Last weekend, cotton futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a 15-year high. Global cotton hot, high price rebound. Market participants pointed out that cotton production is expected to exacerbate the output cut, delayed the listing of new cotton, tight supply and demand and Other
cotton prices rose steadily International: Takaoshi Futures Jingsu Futures General Manager R & D department told the "IFC" reporter said: Domestic cotton futures prices are jointly affected by domestic and international factors, the current global cotton inventories at historic lows, tight supply and demand, the international cotton market hit a new high, boosting domestic prices. "Last week, the New York Mercantile Exchange, cotton futures rose 7.6% Active buying. Last Friday, the most-active December contract also jumped 2.46 cents to close at 98.22 cents a pound, its highest level since 1995. Due to the weather, many cotton producing countries are expected to see a decrease in output. Pakistani floods have already caused a 17% reduction in cotton output. Humid weather in China also undermines cotton growth. At present, the global cotton supply is tight, and it is estimated that the supply of cotton will drop to 45.44 million bales by the end of 2010/2011, the lowest level in nearly 16 years. USDA latest report shows the ending stocks fell to 9.892 million tons, ending stocks consumption fell to 37.7%, a 15-year low. Market analysts believe that the international cotton prices will be high consolidation in the future. Brown, the head of Keith Brown, said cotton prices could climb to $ 1 a pound, but there may be some consolidation after that. Brokers Flanagan Trading believes December cotton contract resistance is at 99.15 cents and 1 U.S. dollar, and support is at 98.20 and 97.45 cents a pound. Domestic: Daily limit across the board affected by the new high international cotton prices, September 20 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchanges across the board daily limit. Dong Shuzhi pointed out: "The current market is generally expected to reduce cotton production in 2010/2011." Guan Yu Futures analyst Ma Yuyuan said: "Now the main contract Zheng cotton for the 1105 contract, on behalf of the new year cotton, Zheng Cotton this round of rising based mainly on Nepalese cotton market supply and demand in the domestic market is tight. "Ma Yuyuan also pointed out:" Hebei, Shandong, Xinjiang, China's main cotton producing areas of poor weather, the early forecast for the production of large-scale production cuts, reduce the rate of 20% to 30%. Of course now It is the critical period of cotton growth, but can not be final conclusion, the final output may be different from the forecast. "Beginning in September, there have been new cotton gradually listed, but the market price did not fall because the new cotton market, but the longer high. "On the one hand, due to excessive rainfall, delayed release of new cotton market time; the other hand, the quality of the first listed cotton is not good, continuous rainfall led to pollination of cotton, flower buds, flowers serious fall off, Less cotton bolls and higher water content, less than the business procurement requirements.With the depletion of old cotton inventories, delayed new cotton market, the market is in a primeval, the supply shortage is still significant. "Dong Shuzhi said. Ma Yuyuan told reporters last year, the demand for cotton at 10.35 million tons, demand this year will increase about 200,000 tons, "since last year, the cotton business downstream cotton sales is good, the apparel industry also continued to pick up." Price: High Consolidation "in the short term, the market fundamentals for a while there will be no major changes." Ma Yuyuan pointed out that "Zheng cotton prices continue to rise and exceeded 20,000 yuan per ton, but the price reflects the fundamentals, and still Within a reasonable range. "China Cotton Association held an executive council pointed out that the current price of cotton is a reflection of the normal relationship between supply and demand, is conducive to increasing the income of cotton farmers, cotton area stabilized next year. However, the process of higher cotton prices is also the process of risk accumulation. The China Cotton Association pointed out that the high cotton prices mean high risks for cotton and textile enterprises. New cotton market late there are still many uncertainties. "Cotton prices have been changing the industrial chain of cotton textile industry, cotton prices, cotton yarn, fabric prices will rise, textile and garment enterprises face higher costs, but because of the lucrative apparel industry, you can squeeze the terminal consumption The impact is still small, but if the cotton price continues to rise, it is bound to affect the garment business profit model, breaking the industry's high profits, inhibit the terminal consumption, thus affecting the textile and service enterprises demand for raw materials. However, analysts believe that the current Zheng cotton price support is still relatively strong, short-term cotton prices will remain high. Dong Shuzhi forecast Zheng cotton will be between 19,000 to 21,000 yuan per ton shock. Ma Yuen said that the pattern of tight supply and demand at home and abroad on the cotton price support more profitable. From a technical perspective, Zheng cotton futures are still in a steady upward channel. But market participants warned that in October the new cotton will be focused on the market, when the cotton price or fall, investors are not in the callback in the chase empty, and profit more than a single step to lighten up the risk control is appropriate.
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